Track Completion Dates
Using a statistical technique called Evidence-Based Scheduling (EBS), FogBugz displays a probability curve of completion dates for all the tasks assigned to a particular milestone. You can find out how realistic the milestone's official date is, so you can tell your boss with a straight face: “Yes, we can ship on time. With 4% probability.”
EBS works by doing a Monte Carlo simulation, taking into account:
- Each developer’s track record—as they become better estimators, they’ll generate a narrower range of possible completion dates
- Estimates for all uncompleted tasks
- The developer’s schedule (including holidays, vacations, etc.)
- Project dependencies (e.g. "we can't start task A until task B is done" or "we can't start task C until the new servers arrive.")
- Other projects/tasks that sap away developers' time
You can adjust the input parameters and see how the schedule changes. Answer questions like, “What happens if we only do top priority tasks?” Or, “When will we hit milestone 1?”
To learn more, read the EBS whitepaper.
